El efecto de los shocks energeticos en las economias nacionales (The Effect of Energy Shocks on National Economies)
Abstract
Energy prices rose rapidly through much of 2022. In the third quarter of that year, the price of coal from Australia was up 150 percent compared to one year earlier. Natural gas prices in Europe rose over 150 percent; globally, it rose over 115 percent. And crude oil was up over 40 percent. These increases strain households and businesses in many countries, shifting both the level and composition of consumer expenditures and production volumes. But since, as this chapter documents, the overwhelming majority of global energy use is embodied within countless non-energy goods and services, the entire supply chain must be considered to fully appreciate the scale of the impact of energy shocks. In this chapter, I explore both the direct and indirect effects of recent energy price increases and characterize the exposure of different economies to energy shocks in general. I show that over four-fifths of global energy use is not consumed directly but is instead implicitly contained within the cost of producing individual items. Combining measure of direct and indirect energy trade, I also demonstrate that energy shocks can originate from countries that are not themselves meaningful direct exporters of energy. The analysis also reveals that most European countries are susceptible to not only adverse direct energy shocks-as occurred most recently following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine-but also from indirect energy shocks, especially from the Asia-Pacific region. As the world becomes increasingly uncertain, and global energy supplies more frequently disrupted, exploring ways to lower dependency on foreign energy sources may become a leading policy priority for many countries.
